The Long Game

In 1908, Jersey City became the first American city to chlorinate its water supply. Within two decades, most cities had followed. Typhoid and cholera fell off a cliff.

It also killed an industry overnight.

The bottled water market had one proposition: our water won't kill you. When the municipal supply became safe, that proposition became irrelevant. The industry didn't pivot. It essentially ceased to exist.

For nearly sixty years.

Perrier's US launch in 1977 — the fitness boom, conspicuous health — started a second life. The category that came back bore no resemblance to the one that died. It didn't sell safety. It sold taste, status, identity. Evian. Perrier. Fiji. None led with "this won't kill you." The original driver was gone. The category rebuilt on something else — and became a $300 billion global market.

The condom category ran the same race.

For Gen X, fear defined sex. The AIDS crisis turned a contraceptive product into a matter of survival. Advertising didn't celebrate pleasure — it showed the Grim Reaper.

Then slowly the fear receded. Antiretroviral treatments arrived. A defining anxiety of a generation gradually lifted.

The question was the same one bottled water had faced in 1908: what are we when the fear goes?

Durex's answer was "Feeling is Everything." Not protection. Not prevention. Sensation, intimacy, pleasure. Ultra-thin. Textured. Products designed to enhance rather than safeguard. The condom market is growing fastest in the segments furthest from fear.

Same product format. Completely different reason to buy.

Three categories face this question today.

Food manufacturers are watching GLP-1 drugs suppress the hunger signal that drove impulse purchase. As explored in Post 10: grabbed falls, chosen grows.

Social media platforms are watching age bans remove the demographic their entire model was built around. This week Keir Starmer announced the UK will join Australia in banning under-16s from TikTok, Instagram and others. The question isn't how to get them back. It's whether the product is really worth choosing for any user without the compulsion loop.

SaaS businesses face it differently. Many products are retained not because users love them but because switching is painful. AI is compressing that switching cost fast. The subscription that stayed because moving was too hard is now up for genuine scrutiny. What does your product stand for when inertia stops doing the selling?

In each case the question is the one bottled water eventually answered and condoms are still answering. Not "how do we defend the original driver?" but "what do people actually want from us when it's gone?"

The businesses asking that now are the ones that won't need sixty years.

Part 2 of 3 — "What Are You Worth Without the Driver?" · Every Era Has Its Reboot series

Water chlorination — Jersey City first US city to chlorinate water supply, 1908: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "Achievements in Public Health, 1900–1999: Safer and Healthier Foods." MMWR Weekly, 1999. Decline of the early bottled water market following chlorination: Gleick, P.H. (2010). Bottled and Sold: The Story Behind Our Obsession with Bottled Water. Island Press. Perrier US launch 1977 and the fitness boom: Fishman, C. (2011). The Big Thirst. Free Press; also Beverage Industry archives. Global bottled water market ~$300 billion: Statista, Global Bottled Water Market Revenue, 2024.

Condom market and repositioning — AIDS crisis impact on condom category from late 1980s: UNAIDS historical reporting; also documented in Avert.org, "History of HIV and AIDS Overview". Antiretroviral treatments transforming AIDS from fatal to manageable condition: UNAIDS World AIDS Day Report, 2023. Durex "Feeling is Everything" repositioning: Reckitt Benckiser / Durex brand history; documented in marketing trade press including Campaign and Marketing Week. Condom market fastest growth in pleasure/ultra-thin segments: Grand View Research, Global Condom Market Report, 2024; also Mordor Intelligence, Condom Market Size & Share Analysis, 2024–2029.

GLP-1 impact — Hristakeva, S., Liaukonyte, J., and Feler, L. (2024). "The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Purchases." Cornell SC Johnson College of Business. Published December 27, 2024. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5073929

Social media age bans — Australia under-16 social media ban: Online Safety Amendment (Social Media) Act 2024, passed November 2024, in effect December 2025. UK under-16 social media ban announced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, June 2026: BBC News, The Guardian, June 16 2026.

SaaS and AI switching costs — AI impact on software switching costs: widely discussed in technology and business press; see Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), "The New Economics of SaaS in the AI Era," 2024; also McKinsey Global Institute, "The State of AI," 2024.

Post 11 of the "Every Era Has Its Reboot" series. | redebuter.com